videolab, I wouldn’t argu



I wouldn’t argue with you that $1,000 is a good price for new technology. I remember paying almost $4,500 for a Mac Performa 630 CD (yes, 630, not 6300!), which had a speedy 4x CD-Rom drive, a 260 Megabyte hard drive, and a whopping 8MB of ram (expandable to an unheard of 64MB. IT even came with an amazing 2400 baud modem! πŸ™‚ Now, just a hair over a decade down the road, you wouldn’t be able to give that piece-o-garbage away! Believe me, I tried!

What I’m saying is not that it’s a bad price for new technology, but that it’s a waste of money right now.

Okay, so 17% of American homes have HD. Great. How many of those homes have a Blu-Ray player? Answer: not so many. And besides that, there ‘s still some momentum behind the alternative HDDVD format. You could drop $1000 on this unit, and next year, HDDVD becomes the standard thanks to clever marketing, and all of a sudden, you have a $1000 paperweight. You then may as well go toss it in the box in the back of that Edsel in your garage where you keep your old Betamax VCR gear, dvorak Typewriter, and Polavision movie camera, just in case it ever gets used again.

The book is still being written on HD, and while the ink is still wet on the pages, you can expect to pay quite a price for this potential failure. And the time will come, as more and more people get into HD and want a solution for recording, when the battlefields that Betamax and VHS fought upon years ago will be revisited, this time by the HD platforms.

And besides all of that, Television studio quality HD is still light years beyond any HD camera on the market. For now, it seems that prosumer HD is stalling out at one step below true HDTV quality, most likely due to difficulties in making the technology fit onto a small handheld unit. But that too will eventually change, and today’s HD cameras will lose value faster than these overnight startups people get suckered into investing in.

Ultimately, the best advice is to wait. Let the market develop. It’s not even a newborn yet; it’s barely in the fetus stages! You don’t go spending thousands of dollars on a car, business suits, and office equipment for your child the same week that your wife tells you that she’s pregnant, do you?

HD is an amazing technology, one that will rock the world when it gets standardized and the market settles on how to deliver it. But right now, it’s still in the birth canal. Let’s wait until this kid is born before we go spending our life savings on a guess of what he might look like as an adult. πŸ™‚

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