Hi,
Being a former HR guy (recruiter/candidate rater and ranker …), I know I do not meet your screenout criteria for being qualified to respond (i.e., do not have experience in distribution of niche DVD on a massive scale). But here goes anyway.
“It all depends†comes to mind as an appropriate response to several of your questions. A number of years ago, Coke introduced New Coke. What was the potential base, already users of the basic product, 20,000,000; 50,000,000 customers worldwide? Very highpriced executives and a marketing research staff goofed, the product didn't sell, and a lot of New Coke was dumped.
Some of your success but not all will depend on the quality of your product. It is great that you have confidence, but do you have second opinions, NOT from your friends, relatives, subordinates, neighbors, bosses, or athletes featured in the film, but others who have asserted to the quality of your product? Seasoned consultants out there with solid track records are hard to come by for under $1000 per consult, but their input can be worth it. Even if you have been a pro filmmaker for some time, outside input is a good idea.
(If you don’t like the idea of a consultant dissecting your film, perhaps then a marketing consultant?)
Let’s assume that you have a product that induces the excitement in viewers of the original The Endless Summer, the first major doc on surfing, a huge hit in its day, and an enduring classic.
Will the participants in the sport be keen to watch a video about the sport, even a great video? No problem if they are featured in it. (Unless you didn’t get a release!). Computer gamers can be so into their games, I don’t envision that they would pull away from destroying their virtual enemies to merely watch a video about the sport, sort of like looking over another gamer’s shoulder, unless it was teaching them strategy to reach a higher level of scary euphoria. Guess it depends on the sport.
Does this sport have conferences or meets where enthusiasts get together to learn the latest tricks, socialize, and compete? Can you get on the agenda and preview your film and start a buzz. Many major motion pictures have been test marketed with substantial changes made to the product, like an ending changed, as a result of feedback during this process. If not a sneak preview of the entire piece, a teaser or trailer perhaps. The reaction of fans/participants of the sport in an upbeat setting could go miles in guiding your decisions about marketing strategies, such as mix of these types of events/print advertising/web presence/cable TV spots; whether to order 500 copies or 5000; and the many tactical, financially sensitive details that you are grappling with.
Bring more copies to these events than you can possibly imagine selling! :D
Best of luck!
REGARDS … TOM 8)