You're probably correct on the legal stance, videolab. However, like you said, the odds of being sued for it are slim to none. The fact is that if you don't record the event at all, then the only way for someone who likes the music to get it again is to buy it themselves, or steal it off the Internet, which is the field that ASCAP and others are trying to cut off right now.
As far as whether they'll start suing, it depends on the situation. I know that in big cities like San Fransisco and New York, ASCAP requires bar owners to hold a copyright license to cover bands. In most mid-to-small towns, it's not a big deal.
You also need to keep in mind that Christian labels who aren't under the rule of the larger companies are often a lot more lax on their copyrights. As I said before, sometimes just writing them a letter will get your permission for a small crowd, and it's literally only a few cents per song to buy the distribution rights.
Like I said, the best advice is to ask around. Contact the recording labels, as well as the other local churches.
The more I think about this though, the more I'm starting to think that contacting the CCLI would be a good idea. If your church alrady has a CCLI license, and if the market you're presenting the video on is small enough, the CCLI license might cover your preformance. If not, they'll have the answer you need.
Log in to
http://www.ccli.com or call them at 1-800-234-2446. Let us know what you come up with.
Yeah, it might be that nobody will notice, care, or question you guys, but wouldn't if be nice to be legal? :)